Hidden Risks of Naming a Trust as Your IRA or 401(k) Beneficiary

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Naming your trust as the beneficiary of your IRA or 401(k) can be a powerful estate planning tool, but it comes with significant complexities and trade-offs.

Recent IRS regulations, particularly the final regulations issued in July 2024, have made several significant changes affecting individuals who have named a trust as the beneficiary of their IRA or 401(k). These changes address required minimum distributions (RMDs), beneficiary classifications, documentation requirements, and tax implications.

If you have a trust, it may no longer be prudent to name your trust as your 401(k) or IRA beneficiary. You may need to consult with your estate planning attorney to confirm that naming your trust as the beneficiary is still a valid designation.

If your trust document is over five years old, you may need to consult your estate planning attorney to modify your trust or update your beneficiary designations to avoid unintended accelerated distribution timeframes or subject the distributions to steep trust tax rates.

Before discussing the latest tax regulations and the implications of naming a trust as your IRA or 401(k) beneficiary, let’s look at the pros and cons of doing so:

PROS OF NAMING A TRUST AS AN IRA BENEFICIARY

• Control Over Distributions: A trust allows you to set specific terms for how and when assets are distributed. This is particularly useful if your beneficiaries are minors, have special needs, or may not be financially responsible [9][10][11][12].

• Protection for Vulnerable Beneficiaries: Trusts can protect beneficiaries who are minors, disabled, or have issues with creditors, addiction, or poor financial decision-making [9][13][14][11][12].

• Asset Protection: A trust can safeguard assets from a beneficiary’s creditors, divorce, or lawsuits [10][12].

• Estate Planning for Blended Families: Trusts can ensure assets are distributed according to your wishes, such as providing for a spouse during their lifetime with the remainder going to children from a previous marriage [13][14][10][12].

• Privacy: Distributions through a trust avoid probate, keeping your estate details private [10].

• Special Needs Planning: A properly structured trust can provide for a beneficiary with special needs without disqualifying them from government benefits [14][10][11].

• Contingency Planning: Trusts can specify what happens if a beneficiary dies before receiving their full share, offering more control over the ultimate disposition of assets [12].

CONS OF NAMING A TRUST AS AN IRA BENEFICIARY

• Accelerated Taxation and RMD Rules: Trusts are subject to RMDs based on the oldest beneficiary’s life expectancy, which can accelerate withdrawals and taxes compared to naming individuals directly [9][13][11].

Under the SECURE Act, most non-spouse beneficiaries, including trusts, must withdraw the entire account within 10 years, eliminating the “stretch IRA” (explained below) in most cases [14][10][11].

• Potential for Higher Taxes: Trusts reach the highest federal income tax rate much faster than individuals. If the trust accumulates income instead of distributing it, this can result in significantly higher taxes [15][10].

• Loss of Spousal Rollover: Naming a trust as beneficiary means a surviving spouse cannot roll the account into their own IRA, losing the ability to defer taxes over their lifetime [14].

• Increased Complexity and Cost: Administering a trust as a retirement account beneficiary involves more paperwork, legal compliance, and potentially higher administrative costs [13][15][10].

• Risk of Non-Compliance: If the trust is not drafted correctly as a “see-through” (or “look-through”) trust (see below), it may trigger even more accelerated distribution rules, such as the five-year distribution rule [15][11].

• Plan Restrictions: Some employer plans may not allow trusts as beneficiaries or may require lump-sum distributions, which could trigger full immediate taxation [13].

• No Probate Avoidance for Trust Assets: While retirement accounts avoid probate when a beneficiary is named, naming a trust does not provide additional probate avoidance for the retirement account, though it does for assets distributed from the trust [11].

When Naming a Trust as Beneficiary Makes Sense

• You have minor, disabled, or financially irresponsible beneficiaries.

• You want to control the timing and amount of distributions.

• You need to protect assets from creditors or divorce.

• You have a blended family and want to ensure specific inheritance outcomes.

• You have a beneficiary who relies on government benefits.

When It May Not Be Advantageous

• Your beneficiaries are financially responsible adults.

• You want to maximize tax deferral and minimize complexity.

• Your spouse is the primary beneficiary and would benefit from rollover options.

KEY TAX CHANGES AND THEIR EFFECTS

Before the SECURE Act, passed in December 2019, IRA beneficiaries enjoyed a long “stretch” of time to take distributions from the IRAs they inherited. Beneficiaries could distribute the inherited IRA assets over the remainder of their lifetimes using the IRS RMD rules.

That stretch was largely eliminated for most IRA beneficiaries who inherited an IRA from a decedent starting in 2020. The IRS took over 4 1/2 years from the passage of the SECURE Act to finalize regulations surrounding distributions from post-2019 inherited IRAs.

1. Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) and the 10-Year Rule

As mentioned above, the SECURE Act and its subsequent regulations essentially eliminated the "stretch IRA" for most non-spouse beneficiaries, including trusts, replacing it with a 10-year payout rule. This means that, in most cases, all funds in an inherited IRA or 401(k) must be distributed by the end of the 10th year following the account holder's death.

If the account owner died after their required beginning date (RBD), annual RMDs must be taken during years 1–9, with the entire balance distributed by year 10.

If the account owner died before their required beginning date (RBD), annual required minimum distributions (RMDs) are not required in years 1–9. Instead, the entire inherited IRA or retirement account balance must be distributed by the end of the 10th year following the year of the original owner’s death. Depending on the size of the IRA and the beneficiary's tax bracket, taking some distributions in years 1-9 may be prudent, even if not required.

The RBD for most IRA owners is age 70-1/2 to 73 (soon to be 75). Remember that the “M” in RMD is the minimum you must distribute. Depending on the size of the IRA, more than the minimum distribution will often make more sense.

Only "Eligible Designated Beneficiaries" (EDBs), such as spouses, minor children (until age 21), disabled or chronically ill individuals, or beneficiaries less than 10 years younger than the decedent, can still use the stretch distribution based on their life expectancy.

2. Trust Types and Beneficiary Analysis

The IRS continues to recognize "see-through" (or "look-through") trusts, which allow the trust's individual beneficiaries to be treated as the IRA's beneficiaries for RMD purposes.

To qualify as a see-through trust under IRS rules, the trust must meet specific criteria that allow its beneficiaries to be treated as direct beneficiaries of an inherited IRA or 401(k). These requirements ensure the trust can utilize stretch distributions or the 10-year rule based on beneficiary status (i.e., EDB or non-EDB).

Here are the key requirements of a see-through trust:

a. Validity Under State Law

The trust must be legally valid in the state where it was created. This typically requires proper execution, witnessing, and notarization of the trust document.

b. Irrevocability Upon Death

The trust must be irrevocable from inception or upon the account owner’s death. Revocable trusts that convert to irrevocable status at death are acceptable.

c. Identifiable Beneficiaries

All trust beneficiaries must be clearly named, identifiable, and eligible individuals (e.g., people, not charities or other entities). This ensures the IRS can "see through" the trust to determine distribution timelines based on beneficiary life expectancies or the 10-year rule.

If a trust is not a see-through trust, it may be considered a:

1. Conduit Trust: All IRA distributions must be immediately passed to beneficiaries. Taxes are paid at the beneficiaries' individual rates, but the 10-year rule generally applies unless all beneficiaries are EDBs.

OR

1. Accumulation (Discretionary) Trust: Distributions are retained in the trust, which pays taxes at higher trust tax rates. All trust beneficiaries are considered when determining the payout period, and the 10-year rule usually applies.

The Final Regulations allow trusts that split into separate subtrusts for each beneficiary upon the account holder's death to apply RMD rules based on each subtrust's beneficiary status. This can preserve stretch treatment for EDBs even if other beneficiaries are subject to the 10-year rule.

3. Documentation Requirements

For IRAs, the IRS has eliminated the requirement for trustees to provide detailed trust documentation to the IRA custodian. Now, only a list of trust beneficiaries and their entitlements may be required, greatly simplifying compliance for see-through trusts.

Some documentation requirements remain for 401(k) and other employer plans, but they have been simplified.

4. Tax Consequences

As mentioned above, trusts reach the top income tax bracket much faster than individuals. In 2024, trust income over $15,200 is taxed at 37%, whereas individuals do not hit this rate until much higher income levels. This can result in significantly higher tax bills if IRA distributions are accumulated in a trust rather than paid to beneficiaries.

Lump-sum distributions or failing to comply with the new rules can result in accelerated taxation and potential penalties.

5. Special Provisions and Clarifications

The IRS clarified that if a trust divides into separate subtrusts immediately upon the account owner's death, each subtrust is analyzed separately for RMD purposes.

If trust terms or beneficiaries are modified after the account owner's death (by September 30 of the following year), these changes will affect RMD calculations as if they were always part of the original trust.

Payments made "for the benefit of" a beneficiary (such as to a custodial account for a minor) are treated as direct payments to the beneficiary for RMD purposes.

PRACTICAL CONSIDERATIONS

Most trusts named as IRA or 401(k) beneficiaries will now face the 10-year payout rule, with fewer opportunities for long-term tax deferral.

Under the new rules, trusts must be carefully analyzed and possibly restructured to maximize tax efficiency and achieve estate planning goals.

Simplifying documentation requirements reduces administrative burdens for IRA trusts, but not necessarily for employer plans.

High trust tax rates make accumulation trusts less attractive for holding retirement assets over the long term.

ACTION MAY BE REQUIRED

If your IRA or 401(k) names your trust as a beneficiary, it’s advisable to consult with your estate planning attorney to ensure that, in light of the recent tax regulations, naming the Trust as beneficiary is still prudent.

If you’re unsure whether your trust is considered a see-through trust, consult with your estate planning attorney to determine if the trust must be modified to ensure that the 10-year distribution for beneficiaries remains intact. Otherwise, that 10-year period might be inadvertently shortened to five years, or worse, subject distributions to overly steep trust tax rates.

Whether you have a trust or have named your trust as a beneficiary of your IRA or 401(k), now is a good time to check the beneficiary designations on all of your retirement accounts and insurance policies to ensure they are up to date and reflect all of your recent life changes. If something should happen to you, your loved ones will be most grateful.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and their financial plan and investment objectives are different.

1-8. Deleted

9. https://www.voya.com/blog/retirement-account-pros-and-cons-naming-trust-beneficiary

10. https://www.markruizlaw.com/should-your-living-trust-be-the-beneficiary-of-your-ira-or-401-k-pros-and-cons-explained

11. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/trust-beneficiaries.asp

12. https://www.drobnylaw.com/articles/designating-a-trust-as-beneficiary-of-individual-retirement-account-benefits

13. https://www.myubiquity.com/resources/can-a-trust-be-a-beneficiary-of-a-401-k-plan

14. https://www.katz-law-firm.com/can-a-trust-be-the-beneficiary-of-an-ira/

15. https://caryestateplanning.com/blog/should-i-have-a-trust-as-my-ira-beneficiary/

What's Going on in the Markets April 6, 2025

Last week was no fun. It was a big downer.

Major indexes were down between 9% (S&P 500 index) and almost 10% (NASDAQ and Russell 2000 indexes) last week as the stock market continues its tariff tantrum. The only market components up last week were United States Treasury instruments and the volatility index (which more than doubled last week). Even gold, which had been on a tear to the upside, succumbed to the selling pressure last week.

Institutions are selling stocks (called distribution) at a pace not seen since the COVID crisis. Even during the bear (downtending) market in 2022, we did not see the kind of selling pressure we saw on Thursday and Friday. That smacks of a genuine concern about the tariff’s effects on corporate earnings. In the age of algos and high-speed traders, markets move faster than ever.

Earlier this year, I wrote that stock valuations were at record highs and that the rubber band was getting stretched thin after two years of 20%+ gains in the S&P 500 index.

When analysts announce that corporate earnings are coming down due to tariffs, institutions sell the stocks to bring down stock market valuations to a fairer value. Legendary investor Warren Buffet was in the news late last year and early this year because of his cash stockpile. He’s probably waiting for an opportunity like we see in today’s deflated markets.

The only thing that stopped the selling on Friday afternoon was the closing bell.

Unfortunately, as I write this on Sunday night, a vacuum of positive news on the tariff front has sellers picking up where they left off at Friday’s close (in the thinly traded overnight futures markets). So Monday morning’s open is already not looking too good.

GIVE ME THE BAD NEWS FIRST

More Country Responses: Friday’s sell-off began pre-market when China announced retaliatory tariffs of 34%, equal to our newly imposed tariffs on China. Other countries have made rumblings about not sitting still and will announce retaliatory tariffs of their own. We haven’t heard from the Eurozone, but I’m betting they’re preparing a backlash of their own.

CEO Optimism at Lows: Because of the lack of clarity on tariffs and their impact on their companies, most CEOs have not figured out what to expect for their companies, employees, and operations. If tariffs are to be absorbed, employees will undoubtedly have to be laid off, and perhaps locations or offices will be closed to maintain decent profit margins. Of course, this can be a precursor to a recession. The coming second-quarter earnings calls will be very telling.

Technical Support Areas May Not Hold: Just because prior institutional support in certain price areas of the markets has held before doesn’t guarantee it will hold up again. Sure, we may bounce at upcoming support points, but how long and to what amplitude? Markets that have declined as they did on Thursday and Friday don’t just turn around on a dime, so further weakness should be expected.

Slowing Growth: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell into contraction territory (< 50%) last month at 49%, while the leading New Orders component dropped to a 22-month low, and the Prices Paid Index leapt seven percentage points, warning of increasing price pressures.

Last week, the ISM Services report indicated slowing growth and increasing prices, with four fewer industries reporting growth than during the previous two months. A continued downward trend would be problematic for the broader economy, as services contribute the majority of GDP.

Job Market Wobbles: Challenger Job Cuts rose 60% in March, a 205% increase from one year ago. This marks the highest level for the series outside of the COVID recession. Cuts in government, technology, and retail jobs lead to these numbers.

Friday’s Monthly Employment Situation Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, though better than expected with 228,000 jobs created in March, also showed the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2% (from 4.1%). Nonfarm payrolls increased more than expected, partly due to workers' return following a strike. A continued increase in the unemployment rate would indicate serious trouble for the U.S. economy.

WHERE’S THE GOOD NEWS?

Potential Dealmaking: Signs that Vietnam and a few other countries want to negotiate lower tariffs are positive and could spark a rally. Suppose the Trump administration becomes overwhelmed with requests for meetings from countries to renegotiate tariffs. In that case, the President may hit the pause button on tariffs to allow enough time for the players to come to the table.

We’re Oversold: Markets are grossly oversold after last week's barrage of selling, and the rubber band is therefore stretched to the downside. We only need one bit of good news to see a 200-400 point rally in the S&P 500 index. Markets this oversold tend to see a violent bounce (some call it a face ripping rally), though I doubt we’ll see another “V” bottom like we saw post-COVID.

Lower Interest Rates: The betting markets have increased the odds of up to four rate cuts this year by the Federal Reserve, up from one or two expected last month. Stock markets love lower rates and tend to rally on this news. In addition, the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bill is back under 4%, which helps lower government interest costs on its massive debt load, not to mention consumers’ debt load.

Nearby Technical Support: The market indexes are approaching long-term areas where institutions have been willing to buy and support them in the past. At a minimum, it should be an area where we see a robust bounce, if not a one —to three-week rally. Seasonally, April is a positive month for the stock market.

Opportunities abound: You’re getting to buy some of the market’s best stocks at price levels we haven’t seen in years. Some stocks have lost 30%-50% of their value over the last few months. It’s better than a sale at Target Stores!

Still Up Almost 30%: Though the S&P 500 is down 17% from February’s all-time high, we’re still about 30% higher than where we traded at the start of the bull market in October 2022. This puts us back to levels where we traded in April 2024, about a year ago, so essentially, we’ve given back the last year of gains (no, it’s never fun, but no one said the stock market was a one-way ticket upward).

Quantitative Studies: When studying past periods when we had such intense selloffs as we saw on Thursday and Friday, markets tended to be higher 1-12 months out almost every time. While the past is not prologue, in this business of typically 50/50 odds, higher probabilities are the best tool to guide you on what’s more likely than not to happen.

Lower Energy Prices: Oil supplies and recession fears are helping to bring down the price of oil and related energy products. Most recessions are associated with oil price spikes, a nail in the coffin of consumer spending after a long good run. Lower oil prices leave more money in consumers’ pockets for other discretionary spending, which tends to stave off recessions.

WHAT TO DO NOW?

As discussed in Where's the "Markets in Turmoil" Special published last Thursday, it’s not about what you know in this market. It’s about how you behave or react to what’s happening.

I can’t pretend to know how exactly you’re feeling, but believe me, I’m carrying the weight of an untold number of families’ retirement life savings on my shoulders, so I understand your worry and pressure about what’s happening to your nest egg. As alluring as it sounds, the temptation to sell here and wait for a better time to invest is much harder to pull off than you think. I still know people who left the markets after the 2007-2009 financial crisis and can’t pull the trigger on stocks more than fifteen years later. If you’re truly worried, call your advisor and talk to her or him about the best way to reduce your overall risk.

Even though it’s OK to nibble a little here and there on stocks, it feels too early to go all in and yet too late to sell. While we finally saw signs of panic on Friday, Monday may bring in the laggard sellers who watched the Sunday news shows or logged on to their 401(k) over the weekend. Plus, we can expect some margin call selling for those unable to cover their leveraged positions on Friday.

People and the media casually use the word “crash” when they refer to markets. When I think of a crash, I still remember where I was and how I felt in October 1987, when the markets crashed 20%+ in one day. Sure, a 10% market decline in one week is dramatic, and it hurts, but is it a crash when we’re still up almost 30% from the last bear market bottom?

We have not seen a single-day market decline of 20% or more since the 1987 crash. Following the 22.6% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on October 19, 1987 (Black Monday), market-wide circuit breakers were introduced to prevent such extreme losses. These rules halt trading if the S&P 500 index drops by 7%, 13%, or 20% in a single day.

Since then, the largest single-day percentage declines occurred during the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, with the DJIA falling almost 13% and the S&P 500 dropping nearly 12%, both well below the 20% threshold.

BUY, SELL OR HOLD?

Ultimately, your retirement and investment future may be defined by:

A. The patience and discipline you exercise today by holding on and waiting for a better day to sell, or;

B. Your fear of the market going lower causes you to be one of the many architects of a coming market capitulation low that the rest of us enjoy, and you have to chase it at higher prices (if you still have the nerve to rejoin us).

As the trade war unfolds, I expect volatility to continue, but a sharp rally can’t be ruled out if key import taxes are renegotiated and adjusted.

While the tariffs announced on April 2nd were greater than markets had priced in, the effect of these levies has yet to be seen, and it will be essential to monitor the increasing recession warning flags in the coming months.

Finally, many who read my stuff know one of my favorite quotes from Peter Lynch, the renowned investor and former manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund:

“The secret to making money in stocks is not to get scared out of them.”

Now you too know the secret.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and their financial plan and investment objectives are different.

Source: InvesTech Research

Where's the "Markets in Turmoil" Special?

On the worst stock market day since June 2020, when the stock indexes all lost about 5%, I’m sitting around and wondering, “Hey, where’s the CNBC Markets in Turmoil Special?”

You may be thinking, “My portfolio is down bigly today, and you’re worried about a financial markets TV special?”

Well, yes.

According to financial analyst Charlie Bilello, the S&P 500 has historically generated a positive one-year return every time CNBC has aired one of these specials since 2010. On average, the S&P 500 has seen an impressive 40% one-year return following these episodes (1). “So bring on the Markets in Turmoil special!”

LIBERATION DAY WAS SUPPOSED TO BE GOOD. WHAT HAPPENED?

Kidding aside, the proximate cause of Thursday’s sell-off is President Trump’s announcement on Wednesday afternoon that tariffs on our international trading partners will be hefty.

At first, the markets celebrated when they thought he was only implementing 10% tariffs across the board, but they quickly deflated when, game show style, Trump trotted out his tariff country “score boards” showing the rates that many countries would be paying will be far more. Some countries like Cambodia face tariffs as high as 49%, while Vietnam, widely becoming a manufacturing hub for worldwide companies (such as Nike, Samsung, Unilever, and Intel), faces tariffs of 46%.

In my What’s Going on in the Markets from Sunday, I posited that we may get a post-Liberation Day rally if the tariffs turn out to be lighter than expected. Instead, we got the exact opposite: far worse than anticipated tariffs.

The stock market’s kryptonite is uncertainty. And with Trump’s tariff announcements, we have, dare I say, massive uncertainty. So traders and institutions did what they do when they’re unsure of the overall effect of tariffs on corporate earnings: they sold first and will ask questions later.

Call me crazy, but I don’t think Liberation Day as a coveted national holiday will be a thing anytime soon.

ARE WE THERE YET?

On a year-to-date basis, the S&P 500 index is down about 8.4% and is 12.2% from its intraday all-time high of February 19. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index has lost about 12% year to date, and Small-Cap stocks have had it far worse, down almost double the S&P 500 index.

Historically, the S&P 500 has experienced a 12% pullback approximately once every two years, so this is regular market action. Since this bull (uptrending) market started in October 2022, we had not seen a 12% pullback, so we were overdue for one. It never feels good when you’re in the middle of it.

The question, of course, on everyone’s mind: will it get better or worse?

And the answer is that nobody knows. But based on the steady selling we saw on Thursday, with just a slight pause for a 90-minute market bounce before selling resumed, I would guess that the selling is not yet over.

With many large market participants trading on margin (leverage), it tends to exasperate the selling when large firms overextend themselves. Then, their positions must be liquidated (at the wrong time).

It’s going to take weeks, if not months, to sort out the effects of the tariffs on corporate earnings. I would guess that statisticians will keep tabs on the number of “tariff” mentions on the first 2025 quarterly earnings conference calls starting in earnest next week. And if companies reduce their forward earnings estimates or warn of headwinds ahead, the markets will reprice stocks lower to reflect lower expected earnings. My cynical side forecasts that companies that miss their earnings estimates now have a convenient excuse tucked away in their back pocket.

SELL AND HEAD FOR THE HILLS?

You’ve probably heard the expression: No one ever made a dime panicking.

While uncertainty is the enemy of the stock market, and you don’t have to embrace it, you must also not react with knee-jerk selling because everyone else is. If you have a financial plan, your investing plan considers these occasional roller coaster rides in the markets. Therefore, you don’t throw away your plan at the first sign of volatility. Besides, when you sign up for the higher rates of return of the stock market, volatility is the price you agreed to pay for those higher rates.

One of the secrets to great investing is that you don’t have to know everything. And even if you do, it probably won’t make you a better investor.

Do you know what will?

Better behavior during a market selloff makes you a better investor. Resist the urge to give into your fear and follow the crowds out of the markets before your portfolio supposedly heads to zero (the same applies to resisting the fear of missing out). No wonder every Dalbar study of individual investors year after year shows that the majority never perform as well as the funds they own.

Nibbling here and there on the way down to take advantage of Wall Street’s sales makes for better behavior. Buying when stocks are down appreciably from nosebleed levels: that’s good investor behavior. And trimming positions that are at nosebleed levels, if you own them, is good investor behavior.

I was reminded today of a quote by well-known financial behaviorist and author Morgan Housel, who wrote in his book The Psychology of Money (highly recommended):

“Good investing is about how you behave, not what you know. Investing rewards those who can sit still when everyone else panics”.

THIS TOO SHALL PASS

If you already have a financial advisor and find the markets’ action worrisome, contact him or her (if not, feel free to contact us). Perhaps your risk tolerance is not as high as you thought when the markets kept going up. Sometimes, tweaking your investment allocations can help you sleep soundly again.

While I don’t know when things will turn around, I know that every day gets us closer to a durable bottom. Markets are oversold, and that bounce-back rally could start tomorrow, Monday, or the following week. Buying a little at these levels is almost always a good idea when you look back 12-18 months. And if you need to trim your positions, you can use any rally to help cut your losses.

We have continued to nibble on some added positions for our client portfolios, adjust our hedges (2), and sell option premiums into the elevated volatility. The day will come when we can jettison our hedges, but we’re keeping them for now…

At least until we get a Markets in Turmoil Special.

Disclaimer: None of the foregoing is a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Please consult with your financial advisor before taking any action.

Footnotes:

(1) However, it's worth noting that this data is based on a limited sample size during a predominantly bullish market period. Bilello cautions that the results might not hold in a prolonged bear (i.e., a downtrending) market.

(2) Hedging is any approach to investing that reduces your overall market exposure risk and volatility.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and their financial plan and investment objectives are different.

What's Going on in the Markets March 16, 2025

All the major indexes, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average (30 stocks), S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and even the Wilshire 5000, closed at new 6-month lows on Thursday before a robust bounce on Friday.

Although at its worst moment on Thursday, the S&P 500 index was down almost 10.5% from its recent 52-week high, it managed a decent bounce on Friday but still closed down 8.3% from that peak. Year to date, the index is down 4.1%.

For the week, the S&P 500 lost 5.3%, the NASDAQ dropped 5.8%, and the small caps continued their persistent weakness, falling 5.5%.

Market leadership, especially among technology stocks, showed further deterioration this week, and bearish distribution (institutional selling) continued accelerating. By the end of the week, investor sentiment bordered on extreme fear, one element in the making of a robust market rally.

Though there’s not much to be happy about as an investor, keeping the current pullback in perspective is essential. The S&P 500 index is trading back where it was in mid-September 2024, a mere six months ago. The S&P 500 is still 60% higher than the low made at the start of the current bull market (uptrend) in mid-October 2022.

IT’S THE ECONOMY

Not helping things last Tuesday, the Small Business Optimism Index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) fell to 100.7 for February (from 102.8 in January and 105.1 in December). The Uncertainty Index rose to its second highest level in the series history—just below the reading reached in October last year.

Uncertainty on Main Street has led to fewer small business owners viewing this as a good time to expand or expecting better business conditions. Enthusiasm over the Trump administration's expected pro-business policies has faded quite a bit.

More favorably, the Bureau of Labor Statistics's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) came in slightly cooler than expected for February, reflecting inflation easing. However, underlying data in both inflation measures indicate that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (or PCE, which comes out at the end of the month), will likely continue to be stubbornly elevated.

Consumer Sentiment drives consumer spending and buoys corporate earnings. Confident consumers are essential to a strong economy, or at least one that can avoid a recession.

Friday’s Overall Consumer Sentiment Index report from the University of Michigan fell dramatically (down 6.8 points to 57.9) for the third consecutive month on concerns ranging from personal finances and the stock market to inflation and labor markets. The Current Conditions Index slid to 63.5, and most concerningly, the Future Expectations Index tumbled 9.8 pts to 54.2, its lowest level since July 2022. Year-ahead inflation expectations spiked to 4.9%, the highest since November 2022.

All three sentiment indexes are now at historically low levels rarely seen outside of recessions. The rapid decline in Consumer Sentiment reflects increased uncertainty about individuals’ perceptions of their financial situation. Uncertainty regarding the future can quickly materialize into a slowdown if consumers cut back on spending or delay big purchases.

This sentiment report marks the most significant two-month increase in inflation expectations since 1980. Consumer attitudes have rapidly changed since the end of last year, and this report headlines the collapse of speculation and exuberance that drove the stock market last year.

IS EVERYTHING BAD OUT THERE?

By most measures, the current pullback has been somewhat orderly, with few signs of investor panic or institutional wholesale dumping of stocks. Some would prefer to see signs of investor panic and some kind of “whoosh” to the downside to signal that a bottom might be in. Instead, what’s happened is a slow “drip” lower akin to water torture that persists for an unknown duration.

As optimistic and pessimistic investors pray for a sustainable bounce, they tend to have opposite objectives. The optimist wants the market to go up to validate their “buy the dip” mentality and produce profits as rewards for their bravery. The pessimistic investors recall past severe market cycles and feel trapped in the market. They will use any bounce or rally to sell stocks and perhaps declare, “Never again!”

These opposing forces are at play on any market day. Still, when the markets decline persistently, as we’ve seen since February 20, the battle between optimists and pessimists can bring about strong emotions and perhaps opposite actions or reactions to the fear, uncertainty, and doubt surrounding a weak market.

So how has this resolved itself in similar scenarios in the past?

A COUPLE OF QUANT STUDIES

We can look to quantitative (quant) studies to help answer the foregoing question.

Analyzing past market historical statistics, often called quantitative analysis, can lead one to believe the market is predictable by studying past patterns. Nothing, and I mean nothing, has definitive predictive power, but humans tend to repeat behaviors repeatedly, making some of these quantitative measures somewhat valuable for review and consideration. They are mere data points in a collection that make up the bulk of market-generated information.

Here are summaries of a couple of quantitative studies from Carson Investment Research:

Quant Study 1: Since World War II, the S&P 500 index has experienced 48 market pullbacks of 10% or more (a 10% pullback is called a “correction” by many). If you subscribe to the notion that a 20% pullback constitutes a definitive bear (downtrending) market, then 12 of those 48 pullbacks (25%) went on to pull back 20% or more. That means that 75% of the time, a 10% pullback did not lead to a bear market.

Quant Study 2: In addition, if we are heading for a 20% pullback, this would be the third 20% pullback in less than five years, something that has never happened since 1950 (which doesn’t mean it can’t happen). Going back to 1950, the last time we had three bear markets this close to each other was between 1966 and 1973, a period spanning 6.9 years. So, another bear market in 2025 would be pretty rare.

So, while most 10% corrections don't evolve into bear markets, the hot money traders' continued complacency and quick-bounce expectations can often precede more significant downturns. Buying the dip, which has worked for years, works until it doesn’t.

GREEN SHOOTS OR BROWNOUTS?

Friday’s bounce notwithstanding, the current price action favors more potential downside unless the market immediately follows through on Friday’s rally to the upside. The market is now significantly oversold, which is historically associated with strong bounces or significant trend changes (from downside to upside). In addition, March corrections frequently stage oversold bounces into recoveries into the end of the calendar quarter.

On another positive note, the next few weeks are seasonably favorable for a continued bounce or rally. This means that historically, this time of the year has been favorable for the markets. If Friday was the spark for a bounce, it could entice more participants to join so they don’t miss the bounce. After all, a rout we’ve seen over the past four weeks deserves more than a one-day wonder rally like we saw on Friday. Indeed, we’ve seen strong reactions to past selloffs comparable to this one. But as they say, “past results don’t guarantee future performance.”

WHAT NOW?

If you’ve been anxious or nervous about market action over the past few weeks, you likely have too much exposure to the stock market. Therefore, it’s prudent to talk to your financial advisor about reducing your overall risk to the “sleeping point.”

If you are the chief investment advisor of your portfolio, take advantage of any rally or bounce to reduce your exposure to better suit your overall risk tolerance. (1)

I won’t repeat everything I said in last week’s What’s Going on in the Markets March 9, 2025. But it bears repeating that we anticipate having a correction of 10% or more at least 1.1 times per year, so this lousy action is normal and shall eventually pass.

A 10% correction turns into a 15% correction about every 40 months (0.3 times yearly). So sure, it could get worse before it gets better, but I’m still not seeing wholesale evidence of a full-on recession or bear market headed our way. We don’t yet have enough proof of that.

If this turns out to be a garden variety correction, and I think it is, taking advantage of the opportunity will pay off for those who have a long-term investing time horizon and are brave enough to step up and buy (it’s never easy to do so, but we did some light buying for our clients last week.) (1)

One of my favorite financial advisors, Keith Fitz-Gerald, often says, “History shows very clearly that missing opportunity is more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control.”

I agree wholeheartedly. Focus on what you can control, and don’t miss the opportunities.

(1) Disclaimer: Nothing in this article recommends that you buy or sell any security. Please consult with your financial advisor before taking any action.

Sam H. Fawaz is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and their financial plan and investment objectives are different.

Sources: InvesTech Research and The Kirk Report

Essential Year-End Tax Planning Tips for 2024

Tax planning becomes essential for individuals and businesses as the year ends. Proactively managing your finances before the calendar flips to 2025 can help minimize your tax burden and set you up for a financially secure new year.

Many clients submit their information yearly to have us optimize their 2024 and future years’ taxes. Proactively estimating and making side-by-side multi-year tax projections has permanently saved some clients thousands of dollars in taxes.

Here are some things to consider as you weigh potential tax moves between now and the end of the year.

1. Consider deferring income to next year

The old rule used to be “defer income.” The new rule is “time income.”

Consider opportunities to defer income to 2025, especially if you may be in a lower tax bracket next year.

For example, you may be able to defer a year-end bonus or delay the collection of business debts, rent, and payments for services. Doing so may enable you to postpone tax payments on the income until next year.

If you have the option to sell real property on a land contract rather than an outright sale, that can spread your tax liability over several years and be subject to a lower long-term capital gain rate (which could be as low as 0%.) On the other hand, if you’re concerned about future tax rate hikes, an outright sale or opting out of the installment method for a land contract sale can ease the uncertainty that you’ll pay higher rates on the deferred income.

If your top tax rate in 2024 is lower than what you expect in 2025 (say, because you are retiring or because of significant gains or a big raise or bonus expected in 2025), it might make sense to accelerate income instead of deferring it.

Be mindful of accelerating or bunching income, which can potentially 1) increase the taxability of social security income, 2) increase Medicare premiums, 3) raise your long-term capital gains rate from 0% to 20%, or 4) decrease your ACA health insurance premium credit.

2. Time your deductions

Once again, the old rule used to be “accelerate deductions.” The new rule is “time deductions.”

If appropriate, look for opportunities to accelerate deductions into the current tax year, especially if your tax rate will be higher this year than next.

If you own a business and are in a high tax bracket, consider accelerating business equipment purchases and electing up to a full expense deduction (via bonus depreciation or Section 179 expensing.)

If you itemize deductions, making payments for deductible expenses such as qualifying interest, state, and local taxes (to the extent they don’t already exceed $10,000), and medical expenses before the end of the year (instead of paying them in early 2025) could make a difference on your 2024 return.

For taxpayers who typically itemize their deductions, the strategy of “bunching” deductions can significantly impact them. Instead of spreading charitable contributions, medical expenses, and other deductible costs across multiple years, consider consolidating them into one year. By “bunching” these deductions, you may exceed the standard deduction threshold and maximize your itemized deductions for the year.

For example, if you typically donate $2,000 annually to charity but are not receiving a tax benefit because you are utilizing the standard deduction, consider making multiple years of contributions in 2024. This could help you exceed the standard deduction amount, allowing you to itemize your deductions and providing more tax benefits (see below.)

For those with significant medical expenses, it’s important to note that only the portion of medical expenses exceeding 7.5% of your adjusted gross income (AGI) can be deducted. If you’re close to reaching that threshold, consider scheduling medical procedures, doctor visits, or purchasing necessary medical equipment before the year ends. Remember that medical expenses are only deductible in the year they are paid, so timing matters.

3. Make deductible charitable contributions

Making charitable donations can reduce your taxable income while supporting causes that matter to you.

If you itemize deductions on your federal income tax return, you can generally deduct charitable contributions, but the deduction is limited to 60%, 50%, 30%, or 20% of your adjusted gross income, depending on the type of property you give and the type of organization to which you contribute. Excess amounts can be carried over for up to five years.

You can use checks or credit cards to make year-end contributions even if the check does not clear until shortly after year-end or the credit card bill does not have to be paid until next year.

As you consider year-end charitable giving, there are a few strategies to keep in mind:

• Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs): If you’re 70½ or older, you can direct up to $105,000 (2024 limit) from your IRA to a charity as a QCD. This donation counts toward your required minimum distribution (RMD) and is excluded from your taxable income (and can reduce the taxation of social security income.) QCDs cannot be counted as deductible charitable donations.

• Donor-Advised Funds (DAFs): DAFs allow you to make a significant charitable contribution in 2024 and receive the tax deduction now while deciding which charities to support over the next several years. This is a strategy to help with the bunching of itemized deductions described earlier.

• Appreciated Stock Donations: Donating appreciated stocks that have been held for over one year instead of cash generally provides a double benefit. It allows you to avoid paying capital gains tax on the appreciation while receiving a charitable deduction equal to the investment’s fair market value.

4. Bump up withholding to cover a tax shortfall

If it looks as though you will owe federal income tax for the year, consider increasing your withholding on Form W-4 for the remainder of the year to cover the shortfall. Time may be limited for employees to request a Form W-4 change and for their employers to implement it in 2024.

The most significant advantage in doing so is that withholding is considered to have been paid evenly throughout the year instead of when the dollars are taken from your paycheck. This approach can help you avoid or reduce possible underpayment of estimated tax penalties.

Those taking distributions from their IRAs can also request that up to 100% of the distribution be paid toward federal and state income tax withholding to help avoid underpayment of estimated tax penalties.

These increased withholding strategies can compensate for low or missing quarterly estimated tax payments.

5. Save more for retirement

Deductible contributions to a traditional IRA and pretax contributions to an employer-sponsored retirement plan such as a 401(k) can reduce your 2024 taxable income. Consider doing so if you still need to contribute up to the maximum amount allowed.

For 2024, you can contribute up to $23,000 to a 401(k) plan ($30,500 if you’re age 50 or older) and up to $7,000 to traditional and Roth IRAs combined ($8,000 if you’re age 50 or older). The window to make 2024 employee contributions to an employer plan generally closes at the end of the year, while you have until April 15, 2025, to make 2024 IRA contributions.

Various income limitations exist for eligibility to make traditional and Roth IRA contributions. Regardless of your income, however, you can make a non-deductible IRA contribution. Such a contribution can be subsequently converted to a Roth IRA at little or no tax cost for many (this is known by many as the “back-door” Roth.) If a Roth IRA conversion doesn’t make sense, the non-deductible contribution adds cost basis to your traditional IRA, reducing future taxation of IRA distributions or Roth conversions. Note that Roth contributions are not deductible and Roth-qualified distributions are not taxable.

Speaking of Roth Conversions, if you expect your tax rate to be higher in future years, or you’re in a low tax bracket in 2024, converting some or all your traditional (pre-tax) IRA or 401(k) funds into a Roth IRA in 2024 may be beneficial. While this conversion triggers taxes now, it can reduce future tax liabilities, as qualified withdrawals from a Roth IRA are tax-free.

Owners of small businesses with retirement plans may have until the due date of their tax returns (plus extensions) to make some retirement plan contributions. Check with your tax advisor for your particular small-business retirement plan.

Some small business retirement plans must be set up by 12/31/2024 to allow for a deduction for the 2024 tax year.

If you have a small business, check with your tax advisor to ensure your retirement plan deductions are correctly balanced with the qualified business income deduction, assuming your small business is eligible.

6. Take required minimum distributions

If you are 73 or older, you generally must take required minimum distributions (RMDs) from traditional IRAs and employer-sponsored retirement plans (special rules may apply if you’re still working and participating in your employer’s retirement plan.)

If you reach 73 in 2024, you must begin taking minimum distributions from your retirement accounts (traditional IRAs, 401(k)s, etc.) by April 1, 2025. However, delaying the 2024 RMD until 2025 will require you to include both the 2024 and 2025 RMDs into 2025 income.

You must make the withdrawals by the required date—the end of the year for most individuals. The penalty for failing to do so is substantial: 25% of any amount you failed to distribute as required (10% if corrected promptly).

In 2024, the IRS finalized somewhat complicated regulations relating to RMDs from inherited IRAs after December 31, 2019.

In general, under the SECURE Act, unless an exception applies, the entire balance of a traditional or Roth IRA must be fully distributed by the end of the 10^th year after the year of death.

In addition, depending on the age of the original IRA owner, heirs must take an RMD every year until the 10^th year, when the remaining account balance must be distributed. These rules require careful and sometimes complex, multi-year planning for large inherited IRAs, so it’s essential to consult your tax advisor.

Review your accounts to ensure you’ve met your RMD requirement for the year, and if applicable, consider making charitable contributions through a QCD.

7. Weigh year-end investment moves

I often tell folks, “You should not let the tax tail wag the investment dog.” That means that you shouldn’t let tax considerations drive your investment decisions.

With that in mind, lower-income taxpayers may be subject to a 0% long-term capital gains rate for up to about $47K of taxable income for single filers and $94K for joint filers. For “kids” under 26, up to $2,600 of long-term capital gains are taxed at 0% if filed on their own tax returns (not filed with parents’ returns.)

Regardless, it’s worth considering the tax implications of any year-end investment moves that you make. For example, if you have realized net capital gains from selling securities at a profit, you might avoid being taxed on some or all those gains by selling losing positions (also known as tax loss harvesting.)

Any capital losses over and above your capital gains can offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income ($1,500 if your filing status is married filing separately) or be carried forward to reduce your taxes in future years.

Wash sale rules prevent investors from selling an investment at a loss and re-purchasing the same or substantially similar security within 30 days in any of their or spouse’s accounts (including retirement accounts). Doing so invalidates the loss for the current year, and the loss deduction is suspended until the new security is ultimately sold. If you wait 31 days to repurchase the same (or substantially similar security), the wash sale rules do not apply.

Digital assets like Bitcoin are not subject to wash sales rules, so there’s no harm in harvesting a loss and then immediately re-purchasing the same digital asset if desired.

8. Contribute to 529 Education Savings Plans

If you’re planning to save for education expenses, the end of the year is an excellent time to consider contributions to a 529 education savings plan. There is no federal tax deduction for 529 plan contributions, but the account grows tax-free if the funds are used for qualifying educational purposes.

Many states offer a limited tax deduction or credit for 529 plan contributions (some states even allow for a deduction for a 529 plan rollover from another state’s 529 plan.) In many states, contributing to a 529 plan you don’t own (say for a sibling, grandkid, nephew, niece, cousin, or friend) also allows for a state tax deduction.

There’s a five-year “super-funding” strategy for those needing to accelerate their college funding. This strategy allows you to contribute up to five years’ worth of gifts to a 529 plan in a year ($90,000 for individuals, $180,000 for married couples). A gift tax return must be filed, but it may not be taxable if this is the only gift made to that person in the current year. This can be a great way to accelerate your child’s education savings.

With the ability to 1) fund private K-12 education, 2) repay some student loans up to $10,000, and 3) rollover some leftover 529 plan funds to a Roth IRA after college graduation, worries about overfunding a 529 education savings plan are far less than they used to be.

In summary, year-end tax planning is a valuable opportunity to control your finances and reduce your taxable income for the year. Reviewing your financial situation, consulting with your tax advisor, and implementing these year-end strategies will ensure that you enter 2025 knowing you’ve made proactive decisions to optimize your tax savings.

Don't hesitate to contact us if you would like to discuss a tax plan that fully utilizes all available strategies.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client and your financial plan and investment objectives are different.