IRS Announces Rare Mid-Year Standard Mileage Rate Increase

In an unusual mid-year action, the Internal Revenue Service has announced an increase in the optional standard mileage rates for computing the deductible costs of operating an automobile for business, medical, and moving expense purposes for the second half of 2026. This change was announced in Internal Revenue Bulletin 2026-29. The mid-year change was attributed to recent increases in fuel prices. The standard mileage rate for computing the deductible costs of operating an automobile for charitable purposes is set by statute and remains unchanged.

What are the new rates?

For July 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the standard mileage rates are as follows:

• Business use of auto: 76 cents per mile (up from 72.5 cents for January 1, 2026, to June 30, 2026), may be deducted if an auto is used for business purposes. If you are an employee, your employer may reimburse you for your business travel expenses using the standard mileage rate. However, if you are an employee and your employer does not reimburse you for your business travel expenses, you are generally not able to deduct your unreimbursed travel expenses.

• Medical use of auto: 23.5 cents per mile (up from 20.5 cents for January 1, 2026, to June 30, 2026), may be deducted if an auto is used to obtain medical care (or for other deductible medical reasons) if you itemize deductions on your federal income tax return. You can deduct only the part of your medical and dental expenses that exceeds 7.5% of the amount of your adjusted gross income.

• Moving expense: 23.5 cents per mile (up from 20.5 cents for January 1, 2026, to June 30, 2026), may be deducted if an auto is used by a member of the Armed Forces on active duty to move, pursuant to a military order, to a permanent change of station (unless such expenses are reimbursed). An employee or new appointee of the intelligence community may also deduct moving-related costs if the move relates to a change in assignment requiring relocation. The moving-expense deduction is not currently available to other taxpayers.

• Charitable use of auto: 14 cents per mile (the same as for January 1, 2026, to June 30, 2026), may be deducted if an auto is used to provide services to a charitable organization if you itemize deductions on your income tax return. Your charitable deduction may be limited to certain percentages of your adjusted gross income, depending on the type of charity, and subject to a 0.5% floor.

How rare is a mid-year adjustment?

Typically, the IRS issues new optional standard mileage rates during the last few months of the year, with the new rates effective January 1 of the following year. Occasionally, however, the IRS announces mid-year changes. This year’s increase will be the fifth mid-year increase in 20 years.

Prior years with mid-year adjustments include 2005, 2008, 2011, and 2022. As with this year’s increase, these prior mid-year standard mileage rate announcements were largely tied to fuel costs.

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA, PFS is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, college, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We begin with a thorough assessment of your unique personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client’s financial plan and investment objectives are unique.

Source: Broadridge Advisor Solutions. © 2026 Broadridge Financial Services, Inc.

Stay One Step Ahead: Five Recent Scams That Demand Your Attention

Ever since I was a kid, I had a passion for learning as much as I could about money: saving it, preserving it, growing it, and protecting it. Part of protecting it meant understanding how people try to separate you from your money, valuables, or other precious belongings.

That means that while I hate to hear about the latest scams making the rounds and that some people have been taken, I also can’t wait to help warn others to protect them from these scam artists.

Gone are the days when the infamous Nigerian prince would try to scam you with a poorly worded email to entice you to make a deposit to free up that $1 million waiting for you if you only help him solve his legal troubles. That’s child’s play today.

With the help of artificial intelligence, scammers increasingly use seemingly realistic, high-pressure tactics to steal money, access accounts, and lift personal information, without the obvious spelling or grammatical mistakes.

Five of the most recently reported threats involve:

1. Reservation hijacks

2. Fake support pop-ups

3. Malicious CAPTCHA or QR-code traps

4. Mobile-device takeovers

5. Multi-factor authentication (MFA) fatigue attacks that pressure users into approving fraudulent login requests.

I’ll discuss each of the above scams and comment on another scam that targets business owners. Call it a “bonus” scam.

1. Reservation hijacks

The current hotel “reservation hijack” scam grew out of unauthorized access to hotel-partner reservation systems and Booking.com-related guest data, not necessarily credit card theft.

In this scam, a traveler has or makes a legitimate hotel or vacation booking and later receives a text, WhatsApp message, email, or phone call that appears to come from the hotel or booking platform. The message may reference real reservation details and warn that the reservation will be canceled unless payment information is verified immediately.

The result can be stolen credit card information, fraudulent charges, or broader account compromise if the victim also provides other identifying details. These schemes work because criminals exploit trust created by a real booking and combine it with urgency and fear of losing the reservation.

Protection starts with independent verification. Never provide card information, passwords, or payment through a link, phone number, or message you receive unexpectedly; instead, open the travel app directly or call the hotel or platform using a verified number from the original reservation or official website.

2. Fake support pop-ups

Another fast-growing scam involves browser pop-ups claiming an unauthorized charge hit an Apple, Amazon, or similar account. The warning may show a fake support number, a charge amount, and language suggesting the account has been hacked and must be verified at once. Amazon, Apple, and other legitimate e-commerce sites don’t use pop-ups to alert you to an account problem.

Of course, these pop-ups are not real account alerts. They are designed to frighten the user into calling a scammer, disclosing account credentials, sharing one-time security codes, paying for bogus support services, or granting remote access to the device.

The safest response is to close the browser tab or force-quit the browser, if necessary, then verify account activity through the official app or by typing the company’s website directly into the browser. A legitimate company will not use a random browser pop-up to demand immediate action through a phone number embedded in the warning.

3. Malicious CAPTCHA and QR-code phishing

At some point, we have all lamented the sometimes frustrating process of trying to find the hidden motorcycles in a grainy picture so you can get to the website you are there to visit. After all, how hard is it to find the picture of a bus in nine squares?

True to form and banking on our attempts to avoid further frustration, scammers are abusing familiar online habits such as CAPTCHA checks and QR-code scanning.

In one variation, a fake CAPTCHA asks the user to press a key combination, open the Microsoft Windows “run” command or terminal application, paste hidden text, and execute a command under the guise of proving they are human.

That command can download malware and give criminals access to passwords, browser sessions, financial logins, and other sensitive data.

A related threat is QR code phishing or “quishing,” in which a fake QR code stuck to a parking meter, flyer, package, or invoice/payment notice sends the victim to a fraudulent login or payment site.

Remember one simple rule: a legitimate CAPTCHA never asks someone to use keyboard shortcuts, paste commands, or run software.

Treat payment or other QR codes cautiously unless they come from a trusted source. Closing the web page, refusing unusual instructions, and manually visiting the known website are the safest moves.

4. Mobile banking Trojans and device takeovers

A malicious link on a phone can be the beginning of a far more serious problem. Sometimes, you don’t even realize that you clicked on a malicious link until it’s too late.

The link may lead to a phishing page or persuade the user to install a malicious app, fake update, or counterfeit financial app that then requests dangerous permissions such as SMS access, notification access, or Android Accessibility access.

Once installed, the malware may read security texts, intercept one-time passcodes, overlay fake login screens, capture credentials, or hide suspicious activity from the user. In practice, this can let criminals bypass SMS-based two-factor authentication and access email, bank, brokerage, payment, or crypto accounts.

The best defense is to install apps only from official stores, keep the phone's operating system updated, refuse unusual permissions, and never log into financial accounts from a device that may be compromised. If a phone appears infected, stop using it for sensitive logins immediately and shut it off. Then contact financial institutions from a separate, known-clean device, and ask them to temporarily freeze your accounts while you sort things out.

5. Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA) fatigue attacks

Another emerging tactic targets people who already use multi-factor authentication. A criminal who has obtained a compromised password may trigger repeated login prompts on the victim’s phone or computer until the person finally approves one out of annoyance, confusion, or the mistaken belief that it is a legitimate security check. This could come from apps like Microsoft Authenticator, Apple 2FA, or Google Authenticator.

In some cases, the attacker follows up with a fake helpdesk or security call telling the victim to approve the notification to stop the alerts or secure the account. Once the attacker gains approval, they may access email, banking, brokerage, payroll, or other sensitive systems despite MFA.

Never approve an unexpected login prompt. Treat an unrequested MFA push notification like a password request from a stranger: deny it, change the password promptly, and contact the institution or technology provider through a known, trusted channel if you have any questions or concerns.

Bonus Scam: The Online Meeting Invitation

Scammers are increasingly targeting business owners, consultants, and professional-service firms by posing as prospective clients, referral sources, vendors, or investors. They make contact through ordinary channels: email, LinkedIn, website inquiry forms, or phone, and often appear credible because they know enough about the business to ask relevant questions about its products or services.

The contact may provide a name, email address, and phone number, but closer inspection often reveals warning signs: calls go unanswered, the voicemail box is consistently full, details about the prospective engagement remain vague, or the person avoids answering straightforward business questions. The conversation eventually turns to scheduling an online meeting.

The key red flag is an insistence that the meeting occur through their Zoom, Microsoft Teams, GoToMeeting, or other conferencing link. If you offer to host the meeting using your organization’s own account and link, the person may claim they cannot connect, repeatedly encounter supposed technical problems, or press you to use their invitation instead.

The risk is not simply attending a meeting. A malicious link can direct a recipient to a counterfeit sign-in page, prompt the download of a fake “meeting update,” browser extension, document, or remote-access tool, or exploit an unpatched device. The objective may be to steal Microsoft 365, Google Workspace, or financial-account credentials, install malware, or gain remote access to the computer.

A legitimate prospective client may have a platform preference, but should be willing to use a meeting link supplied by your firm or to communicate by telephone instead. Treat insistence on an unfamiliar meeting link, especially when combined with urgency, vague business details, or a request to download software, as a reason to pause.

Best practice: Host the meeting yourself, use your firm’s established conferencing account, and never install software, enter credentials, or grant screen-sharing or remote-control access in response to an unexpected invitation.

A practical defense plan

These scams look different on the surface, but they share the same formula: a believable message, a sense of urgency, and a request to take an unsafe action before the victim has time to think. Whether the prompt says “verify your reservation,” “call support now,” “prove you are human,” or “install this update,” the objective is the same: to obtain credentials, payment information, or device access.

Some simple rules can prevent many losses:

• Be skeptical of unexpected instructions delivered by text, pop-up, QR code, email, or phone call.

• Be especially cautious when an unexpected message or caller asks for account information, a password, or a verification code. Sharing a one-time code may be appropriate during a call you initiated or pre-arranged with a trusted firm, but never provide it to an unverified caller, link, pop-up, or message.

• Never allow remote access to your devices unless you initiated the support request yourself.

• Treat pressure and urgency as warning signs, not reasons to act faster.

• If in doubt, ask a friend or loved one for their opinion before taking action

The key to avoiding scams is to pause, slow down, and take a few extra seconds to consider whether that phone call, voice message, text, email, or pop-up is expected given your facts and circumstances at the time.

When in doubt, don’t respond or react through the message. Verify independently using a trusted phone number, app, or website.

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA, PFS is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, college, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We begin with a thorough assessment of your unique personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client’s financial plan and investment objectives are unique.

Investment Scams Are Getting Smarter

You’d think that after decades in the financial services industry, I would have heard of most of the investment scams out there. First in the internet age, and now in the age of artificial intelligence (AI), there are few weeks that pass without me hearing or reading about someone who was scammed out of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars. I’ve even heard from clients and relatives of clients who have been victims of clever social engineering and grooming. It breaks my heart when I hear about them losing money, especially when there’s nothing they or I can do to help.

Investment scams today are more sophisticated, more personalized, and more convincing than ever. Fraudsters now use impersonation, social media, text messages, and even AI-generated content to create trust before they ever mention an investment. The result is a steady stream of investors being drawn into schemes that often end in pump-and-dump losses, frozen accounts, emotional distress, and, in some cases, follow-on recovery scams.

For retirees, the danger is especially serious because the stakes are often long-term savings and income. For active investors, the risk is different but just as real: scammers know how to mimic market language, trading ideas, and “hot” opportunities well enough to sound credible. Traders face yet another layer of risk because scams often borrow the language of momentum, catalysts, and short-term opportunity.

How these scams begin

Many of today’s investment scams start in a way that seems harmless. You may receive a misdirected text from an unknown number, a friendly message on social media, or an invitation to join an investment group. The message may not even mention investing at first. It may simply ask, “Are you home?” or make another innocent-sounding comment designed to get you to respond.

Once you reply, the scammer begins building a relationship. Over time, the conversation becomes more familiar and more personal. Then, almost naturally, the topic turns to investing. The scammer might mention a relative who trades foreign stocks, a special market opportunity, or a group that shares profitable ideas. The goal is not to make the first message look suspicious. The goal is to create a long enough interaction that trust develops before the pitch arrives.

That trust-building phase is critical. Scammers know that people are far more likely to ignore a warning sign once they feel they know the person on the other end of the conversation. This is why many of these frauds are less about one dramatic lie and more about a slow, carefully managed relationship. It is not surprising that older adults who are lonely, recently widowed, or worried about outliving their savings can be especially vulnerable.

Why retirees are targeted

Retirees are often targeted because they tend to be careful, financially responsible, and interested in protecting capital or generating income. That makes promises of steady returns or “safe” opportunities especially appealing. Fraudsters know how to dress up a pitch so it sounds like a conservative income strategy rather than a speculative gamble.

The language matters. If someone promises guaranteed returns, “risk-free” profits, or unusually consistent gains, that should be treated as a warning sign. No legitimate investment is free of risk, and any claim that something is safe, certain, or protected from loss deserves immediate skepticism.

Retirees can also be more vulnerable to secrecy and urgency. A scammer may say the opportunity is exclusive, limited, or only available for a short time. That kind of pressure is designed to prevent a second opinion from a spouse, adult child, advisor, or friend. The less time you have to think, the more likely you are to act emotionally. Some scammers insist that sharing the information with their spouse or significant other would disqualify them from the investment scam; this is a big red flag.

Why active investors need to be careful

Active investors are not immune just because they understand the markets. In fact, scammers often use market language to appear legitimate. They may talk about small-cap stocks, catalysts, foreign issuers, or breakout potential in ways that sound familiar to people who follow the market closely. They may even reference themes like FDA approvals, short squeezes, or momentum moves.

The danger comes when the story becomes more important than the fundamentals. Pump-and-dump schemes typically center on thinly traded stocks that are easy to move with hype. Fraudsters promote the stock aggressively, drive attention and buying interest, then sell their own shares into the strength. Once the promotional pressure fades, the stock can fall sharply and become difficult to exit.

Active investors should also be cautious with social media groups that promise hot tips or “research communities.” These are often just marketing funnels leading people into private chat rooms where the real manipulation happens. If an opportunity is being framed as an inside track or a limited-circle advantage, that is exactly the kind of setup scammers use to create urgency and exclusivity.

A note for traders

Traders can be especially vulnerable because scams often borrow the language and tempo of short-term trading. A message may talk about a breakout setup, a catalyst trade, a pre-news move, or an “early entry” before the crowd finds out. That language sounds familiar to traders, which is exactly why it works.

The danger is that the scam is not really about trade selection. It is about control of the narrative. Fraudsters may tell you which ticker to buy, when to buy it, and even ask for screenshots of your order confirmation so they can keep the story moving. In some cases, they may add you to a chat room with other people who appear to be active traders, creating the illusion of a real trading community. It’s not.

For traders, the red flags are often behavioral rather than analytical. Be careful if a supposed opportunity requires secrecy, moves exclusively through encrypted apps, or pushes low-liquidity names with a lot of hype and no verifiable research. A real trading idea can withstand scrutiny. A scam depends on speed, emotion, and group pressure.

Traders should also be wary of any “mentor,” signal service, or chat group that claims unusually high consistency with very little drawdown. That is not how real trading works. No one has a perfect system, and anyone promising one is selling something other than market insight. Some might call it snake oil.

Social media, impersonation, and AI

One of the most troubling developments is how well scammers now impersonate trusted names. They may use a celebrity face, a well-known market commentator, or a fake representative from a legitimate firm to create instant credibility. The image alone can be enough to lower a person’s guard before the details are examined.

Artificial intelligence has made the problem worse. Scammers can now generate polished messages, remove obvious grammar mistakes, clone voices, and create realistic-looking images or video. That means the old warning signs, like awkward language or obvious typos, are no longer enough by themselves. A scam can now look and sound much more professional than it did a few years ago.

This is why investors should pay more attention to the structure of the pitch than the polish of the presentation. If the message is built around secrecy, urgency, guaranteed returns, or a move to an encrypted app, the presentation quality does not matter. The red flags are already there.

The biggest warning signs

The same warning signs appear again and again across investment scams. The more of these you see, the more cautious you should become.

Watch for:

• Guaranteed or “risk-free” returns.

• Pressure to act immediately.

• Requests to keep the opportunity secret.

• Unsolicited investment offers.

• Pushes to move conversations to WhatsApp, Telegram, WeChat, or another encrypted app.

• Requests for personal information, money, or cryptocurrency before verification.

• Celebrity endorsements that cannot be confirmed independently.

• Advance fees to recover money.

If a stranger is pushing an investment, asking for secrecy, and moving the conversation off the platform, that combination alone should stop the process. You do not need to prove it is a scam in order to step away.

How to verify before you act

The best defense is to verify everything independently. Do not use the contact information, click on the links, or call the phone number contained in the message itself. Go directly to the firm’s website by manually typing it in, via a known app, or a trusted database to confirm credentials and contact details.

For financial professionals and firms, check FINRA BrokerCheck, the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure database, and your state securities regulator. If the person or firm cannot be verified, or if the details do not match what you were told, treat that as a serious warning.

It is also wise to confirm legitimacy by calling a known number from an account statement or official website. If a supposed firm representative asks you to click a link in a text, download a new app, or send sensitive information through an unofficial channel, stop and verify first.

If a stranger insists on using their own Zoom or Teams link, be cautious: it could expose your device to malware that may give criminals access to your private information, passwords, or financial accounts. If you cannot reach the person directly through a U.S. phone number, or if their voicemail is always full and their messages keep steering you to a website, do not proceed.

Why talking to someone helps

One of the most effective protections is also one of the simplest: tell someone else you know and trust before you act. Scam artists depend on emotion, speed, and isolation. They want you to decide quickly and privately. The moment you explain the opportunity to a trusted person, you slow the process down.

That pause is powerful. It gives you time to think more clearly, and it gives someone else a chance to hear what you may be overlooking. Many bad decisions sound reasonable in your own head until you say them out loud.

This matters especially for retirees making decisions about income, capital preservation, or distribution strategy. It also matters for active investors and traders who may feel pressure to move fast on what looks like a market opportunity. Good investing is not just about being informed. It is about having a disciplined process.

What to do if you’ve been targeted

If you suspect a scam, gather documentation immediately. Save messages, screenshots, websites, account details, transaction records, and any names or numbers used in the conversation. If cryptocurrency is involved, preserve wallet addresses and transaction details as well.

Then report it as quickly as possible. Notify your broker or financial institution, the SEC, FINRA, your state securities regulator, and the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center. If money has already been sent, timely reporting may improve the chances of tracing the fraud and helping regulators identify related cases.

Be especially careful with follow-on messages that claim they can help you recover your money. Recovery scams often target people who have already been victimized and are emotionally exhausted. If someone asks for a retainer, processing fee, or other upfront payment to return your funds, that is a major red flag.

Final perspective

The biggest mistake many investors make is assuming scams only work on careless people. In reality, these schemes are designed to exploit normal human reactions: trust, curiosity, urgency, fear, and the desire not to miss out. That is why even experienced retirees, active investors, and traders can be targeted successfully. Some well-seasoned financial advisors have been targeted and victimized.

The solution is not paranoia. It is a process. Verify independently, slow down, avoid isolation, and never let secrecy or pressure drive an investment decision. If an opportunity is real, it will still be there after you check it carefully.

Of course, the old adage applies and is always worth remembering:

“If something seems too good to be true, it probably is.”

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA, PFS is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, college, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We begin with a thorough assessment of your unique personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client’s financial plan and investment objectives are unique.

Source: American Association of Individual Investors

SpaceX, Anthropic, and the Danger of IPO Euphoria

The SpaceX (symbol: SPCX) initial public offering (IPO) arrived on Friday with historic scale and an equally historic level of enthusiasm. Within hours of listing, the company approached a $2 trillion valuation, placing it among the world's largest companies almost instantly.

The stock was priced at $135 and closed its first day of trading near $161, a respectable one-day gain of over 19%. By most measures, the launch was a success.

There’s no question that SpaceX is a remarkable business. The combination of Starlink’s recurring revenue, reusable rocket technology, and its expanding ambitions in artificial intelligence and orbital infrastructure makes it one of the most ambitious enterprises ever brought to public markets.

But investors need to separate two things that often get conflated during moments like this: a great company and a great investment at today’s price.

At over 100x sales, the current valuation embeds not just success, but near-perfection.

What You’re Really Buying

Form S-1 is the basic SEC “go public” document that a company must file before an IPO, laying out its business, finances, risks, and how it plans to use the money raised so investors can decide whether to buy the stock.

A closer look at the SpaceX Form S-1 tells a nuanced story. SpaceX today is effectively three businesses layered together:

• A strong core: Starlink, generating high-margin, recurring revenue

• A proven enabler: reusable rockets lowering the cost of space access

• A set of long-dated bets: Artificial Intelligence, orbital data centers, and space commercialization

A reasonable sum-of-the-parts framework might justify a valuation closer to $1–$1.1 trillion, even after applying a generous premium for Elon Musk’s track record. The gap between that and the IPO valuation represents something very important: a priced-in call option on the future of space itself.

Roughly 30–40% of the valuation is tied not to current earnings power, but to outcomes that may take a decade or longer to materialize, if they materialize at all.

That is not speculation in a negative sense, but it is speculation nonetheless.

The IPO Reality: Liquidity Event First

Only about 4% of shares were floated (offered) in the IPO. The rest remain with insiders, employees, and early investors, many of whom are sitting on enormous gains.

This matters.

The IPO is not primarily about funding rockets. It is, in large part, a liquidity event that allows early stakeholders to sell into peak demand. Public investors are stepping in at a point where much of the value creation has already occurred in private markets.

History shows this is rarely where the best risk/reward entry point exists.

Mega-IPOs and Market History

The pattern is consistent:

• The largest, most anticipated IPOs tend to debut at elevated valuations

• Early trading is driven by constrained supply and heavy demand

• Over time, as stock lock-ups expire and supply increases, prices often normalize

Recent IPO examples reinforce this:

• Rivian: down ~80% from early highs

• Coupang: down more than 50%

• Lineage Logistics: Down about 50% within two years

• Several recent large IPOs are still below listing prices

Even the “winners” like Airbnb and Snowflake have delivered flat-to-negative returns for investors who bought on day one.

In fact, the majority of recent mega-IPOs have traded below their initial listing price within a year.

Even successful long-term companies often struggle after going public. Tesla, for example, went essentially nowhere for years after its IPO before eventually delivering outsized returns. Facebook also traded below its offering price for an extended period before recovering.

This does not mean SpaceX will fail. It means that the entry price matters.

The key takeaway: timing and valuation matter just as much as the quality of the business.

The Supply-Demand Illusion

Early trading in IPOs can be misleading.

With such a small percentage of shares available, supply is artificially constrained. At the same time, demand is amplified by media coverage, retail enthusiasm, and, in some cases, forced buying from index funds. Underwriters have a vested interest in a successful IPO, so they’ll support the stock price by buying shares for the first few days after the IPO.

This imbalance can push prices higher in the short term, but it is not sustainable. As lock-up periods expire and more shares become available, supply increases significantly, often putting downward pressure on prices.

Tesla, SpaceX, and the Merger Question

One of the most discussed topics right now is a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX.

Based on the Form S-1, there is no indication that such discussions have occurred at the board level. From a legal and disclosure standpoint, that strongly suggests any transaction, if it were ever considered, is likely years away, not imminent.

That said, the relationship between the companies is real and growing:

• Tesla supplied over $500 million in energy infrastructure to SpaceX’s AI operations

• Joint initiatives include chip development and AI-driven systems

• Tesla has already taken a stake in SpaceX

These are meaningful commercial ties, but they do not equate to a pending merger. For now, think strategic partnership, not consolidation.

Index Inclusion: A Hidden Driver

Another overlooked dynamic is how quickly SpaceX could be added to major indexes.

Nasdaq’s new “fast entry” rules could force inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 within weeks, potentially driving billions in passive buying. At the same time, S&P maintains stricter profitability and seasoning requirements, which could delay inclusion there.

This creates a new dynamic:

• Short-term demand driven by index flows

• Long-term uncertainty around sustained institutional ownership

It also raises a broader issue: index rules themselves are evolving in response to companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.

Despite its size, SpaceX is not immediately eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 index due to profitability and trading history requirements. While some indexes may add it quickly, others will not. That distinction matters, as index inclusion can drive substantial institutional demand.

Investors should not assume automatic or immediate support from passive investment flows.

Sector Classification Matters More Than You Think

The S&P 500 is divided into eleven sectors, each with different “weights” in the index. Where SpaceX ultimately lands, Communication Services, Industrials, or even a revised sector structure, will influence how capital flows into the stock.

• The Communication Services sector is the most likely home, driven by Starlink

• The Industrials sector reflects legacy aerospace perception

• The Technology sector is possible, but would further concentrate an already dominant sector

This is not just academic. Sector placement affects ETF and mutual fund flows, institutional allocations, and ultimately valuation support.

A Broader Message for Upcoming IPOs (Including Anthropic and Open AI)

What we are seeing with SpaceX is not an isolated event. It is part of a broader trend:

• Larger companies are staying private longer

• Public investors are gaining access later in the lifecycle

• Valuations reflecting peak optimism at the point of entry

We are seeing similar enthusiasm building around other potential IPOs, including companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. Anthropic, OpenAI, and other AI-driven IPOs are likely to follow a pattern similar to SpaceX's.

This is a recurring cycle in the markets. Investors become eager to “get in early” on transformative companies, fearing they may miss the next Amazon or Google. But by the time a company reaches the public markets today, much of the explosive growth has already occurred in private hands.

The public market often receives a more mature company, at a valuation that already reflects high expectations.

The risk is not that these companies are poor businesses. The risk is overpaying at the moment of maximum narrative strength.

A More Disciplined Approach

None of this suggests avoiding these companies altogether. SpaceX may very well be a dominant force for decades. The same could be true for leading AI firms.

However, discipline is critical:

• Avoid chasing first or second day excitement

• Let valuations normalize over time

• Watch how the stock behaves after lock-up periods lapse

• Focus on risk-adjusted entry points rather than headlines

There is often a far greater opportunity after the initial hype fades and price discovery becomes more grounded.

Final Thought: Patience Over Participation

The most important question is not whether SpaceX succeeds. It very well may.

The question is whether buying into the initial excitement offers a favorable risk/reward tradeoff.

History suggests that it rarely does.

There will likely be a time when SpaceX, or companies like Anthropic, offer compelling entry points. Those opportunities tend to emerge after the hype fades, after supply increases, and after valuations are tested by reality.

Until then, discipline matters more than enthusiasm.

Although the fear of missing out is a powerful motivator, there is another saying in the investing and trading business:

It’s better to be out of a stock and wishing you were in, than being in a stock wishing you were out.

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA, PFS is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, college, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We begin with a thorough assessment of your unique personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client’s financial plan and investment objectives are unique.

What's Going on in the Markets May 31, 2026

It’s the end of May, and stock markets continue to demonstrate remarkable strength. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes both reached record highs on the last trading day of the month (Friday), capping off a powerful May in which major indices gained between 2.5% and 11%. Notably, only Bitcoin and gold declined during the month, and year-to-date, Bitcoin remains the only major asset class down double digits, while bonds are modestly negative.

Since the March 30 intraday low, the S&P 500 index has rallied approximately 20%, marking the strongest nine-week winning streak on record. While last week’s gains were relatively modest, they were sufficient to extend this historic run.

A Rare and Powerful Rally

This type of sustained advance is uncommon. Since 1950, there have only been 10 similar streaks, and just two in this century. Historically, these periods are often followed by short-term consolidation (sideways movement), typically driven more by marking time and sector rotation than by sharp price declines.

More importantly, forward returns following these streaks, over periods ranging from one month to one year, have generally been positive. These types of environments have not typically marked major market tops or the beginning of bear (downtrending) markets.

That said, it is reasonable to expect a near-term pause, pullback, or correction. After such an extended run, some degree of consolidation would be healthy. This should not be confused with an imminent bear market; longer-term conditions still support higher equity prices, and I expect the indexes will be higher by year’s end.

Liquidity, Artificial Intelligence, and Expanding Opportunity

Several structural forces continue to underpin the market:

• Artificial intelligence remains a dominant investment theme, driving capital spending, earnings growth, and investor enthusiasm.

• A wave of high-profile IPOs, including SpaceX and Anthropic, has the potential to attract new capital to public markets.

• Corporate earnings have broadly exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in equity valuations.

At the same time, speculative behavior has re-emerged. Recent trading activity suggests increased risk-taking, with rapid money rotations between stocks and heightened momentum-driven flows. This reflects abundant liquidity but also introduces fragility if sentiment shifts.

The Macroeconomic Backdrop: Mixed Signals

While markets are strong, economic data presents a more nuanced picture:

• New home sales declined 6.2% month-over-month, with inventory rising to a 9.4-month supply, well above the 4–6-month range considered balanced. Affordability remains a key constraint.

• Consumer confidence edged lower, with households increasingly reducing discretionary spending and delaying large purchases.

• Inflation, as measured by the PCE Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures), is re-accelerating. Headline PCE rose to 3.8% year-over-year, while core PCE (which measures the prices U.S. consumers pay for goods and services excluding food and energy) increased to 3.3%, both well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Consumer sentiment just hit an all-time low of 44.8 in May, with current conditions and future expectations both collapsing to record pessimism.

This is the first time since 1953 that all three (overall, current, and future) sentiment measures have simultaneously set new lows, making today’s mood historically bad. Consumers feel worse about both their present situation and their outlook than at any point in roughly 75 years of data. They’re especially worried about long-run inflation, the rising cost of living, and deteriorating personal finances. If these attitudes lead households to cut back on spending, it could weigh meaningfully on the U.S. economy and, eventually, on stock prices.

These divergences highlight an important principle: the economy and the stock market often move on different timelines. While portions of the economy, particularly lower- and middle-income consumers, are under pressure, corporate earnings and investment, especially in artificial intelligence, remain robust.

The Federal Reserve: No Immediate Safety Net

Markets have, at times, relied on the assumption of a “Federal Reserve Put”, the idea that policymakers will step in to support asset prices during periods of weakness. That assumption is less reliable today.

With inflation still elevated and the labor market relatively stable, the Federal Reserve has limited flexibility to cut rates aggressively. Any expectation of rapid easing may be premature. As a result, markets could be vulnerable to disappointment if policy remains tighter for longer. A small rate hike in the next 12 months would not be surprising if inflation remains sticky.

The new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh, has his work cut out for him.

Oil, Geopolitics, and Expectations

Recent declines in oil prices have supported stocks by easing inflation concerns and lowering yields. Much of this optimism is tied to expectations of a potential U.S.–Iran agreement and increased global energy supplies.

However, markets may have already priced in much of this positive outcome. If oil prices stabilize or decline less than expected, or if geopolitical developments take longer to materialize, equities could face a “sell-the-news” reaction.

The Week Ahead: A Critical Test

The coming week is dense with catalysts and could set the tone for the market's next phase.

1. May 2026 Monthly Jobs Report (Friday June 5)

Economists expect approximately 90,000 new jobs, with an unemployment rate near 4.3%. Markets are looking for a “Goldilocks” outcome-a strong enough to confirm economic stability, but not so strong that it reignites inflation concerns or pushes interest rates higher.

2. AI Conferences and Commentary

Events such as Computex Taipei, Microsoft Build, and the Snowflake Summit will keep AI at the forefront. Investors will be watching for signs that demand is broadening beyond semiconductors into software, infrastructure, and enterprise applications.

3. Federal Reserve Signals

Federal Reserve speakers and the Beige Book will provide insight into inflation, labor markets, and regional economic conditions. Any shift toward a more hawkish tone could challenge current market optimism.

4. Key Earnings Reports

Companies reporting earnings this week include Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Hewlett Packard Enterprises, Medtronic, Palo Alto Networks, and several major retailers (see below). These results will help determine whether earnings strength is broad-based or still concentrated in a narrow group of leaders.

5. Consumer Health Indicators

Retail earnings and updates, including from Dollar General, Ollie’s, Signet Jewelers, Victoria’s Secret, Macy’s, Ulta Beauty, Five Below, and Lululemon, will offer a clearer picture of consumer behavior. Spending remains intact but increasingly selective.

What Matters Most Now

The market remains in a bullish uptrend, supported by earnings growth, AI-driven investment, and resilient economic activity. However, conditions are becoming more balanced:

• Valuations are higher.

• Expectations are elevated.

• Positioning is more crowded, particularly in technology and AI-related names.

For the rally to continue, incoming data must validate current optimism. That means stable employment, contained interest rates, and continued strength in earnings and AI demand.

Bottom Line

The primary question is no longer whether the market is strong—it clearly is. The more important question is whether it can sustain that strength amid a heavy calendar of economic data, policy signals, and corporate results.

If markets continue to absorb news constructively, maintain leadership, and attract buyers on pullbacks, the path higher remains intact. However, if positive developments trigger selling, or if interest rates rise, it would signal a transition from momentum-driven gains to a period of consolidation.

Investors should be prepared for near-term volatility while recognizing that the broader trend remains quite constructive.

Sam H. Fawaz CFP®, CPA, PFS is the President of YDream Financial Services, Inc., a fee-only investment advisory and financial planning firm serving the entire United States. If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other retirement, college, tax, or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first, with no products to sell. If you are not a client, an initial consultation is complimentary, and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We begin with a thorough assessment of your unique personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client’s financial plan and investment objectives are unique.